Prediction From Minimal Experience: How People Predict the Duration of an Ongoing Epidemic.

People are known for good predictions in domains they have rich experience with, such as everyday statistics and intuitive physics. But how well can they predict for problems they lack experience with, such as the duration of an ongoing epidemic caused by a new virus? Amid the first wave of COVID-19 in China, we conducted an online diary study, asking each of over 400 participants to predict the remaining duration of the epidemic, once per day for 14 days. Participants' predictions reflected a reasonable use of publicly available information but were meanwhile biased, subject to the influence of negative affect and future time perspectives. Computational modeling revealed that participants neither relied on prior distributions of epidemic durations as in inferring everyday statistics, nor on mechanistic simulations of epidemic dynamics as in computing intuitive physics. Instead, with minimal experience, participants' predictions were best explained by similarity-based generalization of the temporal pattern of epidemic statistics. In two control experiments, we further confirmed that such cognitive algorithm is not specific to the epidemic scenario and that minimal and rich experience do lead to different prediction behaviors for the same observations. We conclude that people generalize patterns in recent history to predict the future under minimal experience.

A Bibliometric Review of Constituents, Themes, and Trends in Online Medical Consultation Research.

As an emerging form of health care with accelerated growth in recent years, online medical consultation (OMC) has received extensive attention worldwide. Although the number of studies on OMC has increased substantially, few provide a comprehensive and up-to-date review of OMC's research constituents, themes, and trends. This study, therefore, extracted 1,801 OMC-related articles published in English from the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection database during the past 30 years and employed a bibliometric analysis of WoS and CiteSpace to examine major constituents' distribution, collaboration relationships, themes, and trends. The results indicate that the United States, England, and China contributed the most to the proliferation of OMC studies. The United States had the greatest academic influence and the most collaborative connections, while China demonstrated the sharpest increase and most active development in recent years. However, there is a lack of substantial and close collaboration between researchers worldwide. The main themes of OMC research were Internet hospitals, COVID-19, mixed methods, online health community, and information technology. Researchers have recently shifted their attention to social media, management, efficacy, word of mouth, mental health, and anxiety. This review paper provides researchers and practitioners with a holistic and clear understanding of the features and trends of OMC research. It also identifies potential areas for future OMC research and sheds light on OMC practices.

Negative conversion, lymphocyte/monocyte ratio, and bilirubinemia in COVID-19 with mental disorders (preprint)

This retrospective study explored the changes in biomarkers indicators and prognosis in COVID-19 patients with mental disorders (n = 60) from the author’ Hospital between 2/13/2020 and 4/15/2020. Significant differences before and after negative conversion were observed in lymphocytes, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, albumin/globulin ratio, direct bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, uric acid, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and ApoA1 (all P < 0.05). Compared with the patients who had a negative conversion within 3 weeks, those who did not turn negative within 3 weeks had a higher frequency of cardiovascular diseases (27.3% vs. 4.2%, P = 0.040), a higher lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (median, 4.72 vs. 3.35, P = 0.003), and higher total bilirubin levels (median, 12.0 vs. 8.6 µmol/L, P = 0.031). The results present the changes in laboratory parameters in COVID-19 patients with a mental disorder. Cardiovascular diseases and higher lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and total bilirubin levels could be associated with the amount of time required for negative conversion.

Molecular docking and molecular dynamics study Lianhua Qingwen granules (LHQW) treats COVID-19 by inhibiting inflammatory response and regulating cell survival.

Purpose: 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is endangering health of populations worldwide. Latest research has proved that Lianhua Qingwen granules (LHQW) can reduce tissue damage caused by inflammatory reactions and relieve patients' clinical symptoms. However, the mechanism of LHQW treats COVID-19 is currently lacking. Therefore, we employed computer simulations to investigate the mechanism of LHQW treats COVID-19 by modulating inflammatory response. Methods: We employed bioinformatics to screen active ingredients in LHQW and intersection gene targets. PPI, GO and KEGG was used to analyze relationship of intersection gene targets. Molecular dynamics simulations validated the binding stability of active ingredients and target proteins. Binding free energy, radius of gyration and the solvent accessible surface area were analyzed by supercomputer platform. Results: COVID-19 had 4628 gene targets, LHQW had 1409 gene targets, intersection gene targets were 415. Bioinformatics analysis showed that intersection targets were closely related to inflammation and immunomodulatory. Molecular docking suggested that active ingredients (including: licopyranocoumarin, Glycyrol and 3-3-Oxopropanoic acid) in LHQW played a role in treating COVID-19 by acting on CSF2, CXCL8, CCR5, NLRP3, IFNG and TNF. Molecular dynamics was used to prove the binding stability of active ingredients and protein targets. Conclusion: The mechanism of active ingredients in LHQW treats COVID-19 was investigated by computer simulations. We found that active ingredients in LHQW not only reduce cell damage and tissue destruction by inhibiting the inflammatory response through CSF2, CXCL8, CCR5 and IFNG, but also regulate cell survival and growth through NLRP3 and TNF thereby reducing apoptosis.

The impact of facemask on patients with COPD: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Since the emergence of COVID-19, mandatory facemask wearing has been implemented around the world to prevent viral transmission, however, the impact of wearing facemasks on patients with COPD was unclear. Methods The current study undertakes a systematic review and meta-analysis of a comprehensive literature retrieval from six databases, based on the pre-determined eligibility criteria, irrespective of language. The risk of bias was assessed using an established instrument. We primarily focused on analyzing ETCO2, SpO2, and heart and respiratory rates, and also considered the impacts on physiological and exercise performance. A descriptive summary of the data and possible meta-analysis was performed. Forest plots were generated to pool estimates based on each of the study outcomes. Results Of the 3,751 publications considered, six publications were selected for a systematic review and two publications were included for meta-analysis, however, the quality of these six studies was relatively low overall. In the case of inactivity, the facemask wearing COPD cohort had higher respiratory rates than that of the non-facemask wearing cohort (MD = 1.00 and 95% CI 0.47–1.53, P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in ETCO2 (MD = 0.10 and 95% CI −1.57–1.78, P > 0.05) and heart rate (MD = 0.40 and 95% CI −3.59–4.39, P > 0.05) nor SpO2 (MD = −0.40 and 95% CI −0.84–0.04, P > 0.05) between the COPD patients with and without facemasks. Furthermore, it was observed that the only significant differences between the COPD patients with and without facemasks undertaking different activities were FEV1 (%) (MD = 3.84 and 95% CI 0.14–7.54, P < 0.05), FEV1/FVC (%) (MD = 3.25 and 95% CI 0.71–5.79, P < 0.05), and blood lactate (MD = −0.90 and 95% CI −1.73 to −0.07, P < 0.05). Conclusion Wearing facemasks decreased the exercise performance of patients with COPD, however, it had minimal impact on physiological indexes. Further investigations will be performed on the high-quality data from randomized control studies. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=326265, identifier: CRD42022326265.

Prevalence of Compassion Fatigue and Its Association with Professional Identity in Junior College Nursing Interns: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Background: The issue of compassion fatigue among clinical nurses has received considerable attention, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the current status of compassion fatigue among junior college nursing interns remains unclear. Additionally, professional identity can modulate the impact of compassion fatigue or burnout on psychological well-being; however, whether professional identity still works in this group is also unclear. This study aimed to reveal the current status of compassion fatigue among nursing interns in junior colleges and also investigate the association between compassion fatigue and professional identity. Methods: This cross-sectional survey evaluated the levels of participants' compassion fatigue (The Compassion Fatigue Short Scale) and professional identity (Professional Identity Scale) in 2256 nursing interns. Results: The mean score of compassion fatigue was 44.99, and 19.5% of the participants scored above The Compassion Fatigue Short Scale median scores for compassion fatigue. A moderate negative correlation was detected between compassion fatigue and professional identity. Conclusions: The level of compassion fatigue among nursing interns is low but nearly one in five nursing students is at risk of compassion fatigue. More attention should be paid to nursing interns with a high risk of compassion fatigue. Future studies are warranted to explore which pathways could mediate the relationship between professional identify and comparison fatigue.

Clinical features and effectiveness of Chinese medicine in patients with COVID-19 from overseas: A retrospective study in Xiamen, China.

COVID-19, referred to as new coronary pneumonia, is an acute infectious disease caused by a new type of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. To evaluate the effect of integrated Chinese medicine and Western medicine in patients with COVID-19 from overseas. Data were collected from 178 COVID-19 patients overseas at First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University from April 1, 2021 to July 31, 2021. These patients received therapy of integrated Chinese medicine and western medicine. Demographic data and clinical characteristics were extracted and analyzed. In addition, the prescription which induced less length of PCR positive days and hospitalization days than the median value was obtained. The top 4 frequently used Chinese medicine and virus-related genes were analyzed by network pharmacology and bioinformatics analysis. According to the chest computed tomography (CT) measurement, abnormal lung findings were observed in 145 subjects. The median length of positive PCR/hospitalization days was 7/7 days for asymptomatic subjects, 14/24 days for mild subjects, 10/15 days for moderate subjects, and 14/20 days for severe subjects. The most frequently used Chinese medicine were Scutellaria baicalensis (Huangqin), Glycyrrhiza uralensis (Gancao), Bupleurum chinense (Chaihu), and Pinellia ternata (Banxia). The putative active ingredients were baicalin, stigmasterol, sigmoidin-B, cubebin, and troxerutin. ACE, SARS-CoV-2 3CL, SARS-CoV-2 Spike, SARS-CoV-2 ORF7a, and caspase-6 showed good binding properties to active ingredients. In conclusion, the clinical results showed that integrated Chinese medicine and Western medicine are effective in treating COVID-19 patients from overseas. Based on the clinical outcomes, the putative ingredients from Chinese medicine and the potential targets of SARS-CoV-2 were provided, which could provide a reference for the clinical application of Chinese medicine in treating COVID-19 worldwide.

Targeted photodynamic neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 mediated by singlet oxygen (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been on a rampage for more than two years. Vaccines in combination with neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against SARS-CoV-2 carry great hope in the treatment and final elimination of COVID-19. However, the relentless emergence of variants of concern (VOC), including the most recent Omicron variants, presses for novel measures to counter these variants that often show immune evasion. Hereby we developed a targeted photodynamic approach to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 by engineering a genetically encoded photosensitizer (SOPP3) to a diverse list of antibodies targeting the WT spike protein, including human antibodies isolated from a 2003 SARS patient, potent monomeric and multimeric nanobodies targeting RBD, and non-neutralizing antibodies (non-NAbs) targeting the more conserved NTD region. As confirmed by pseudovirus neutralization assay, this targeted photodynamic approach significantly increased the efficacy of these antibodies, especially that of non-NAbs, against not only the WT but also the Delta strain and the heavily immune escape Omicron strain (BA.1). Subsequent measurement of infrared phosphorescence at 1270 nm confirmed the generation of singlet oxygen (1O2) in the photodynamic process. Mass spectroscopy assay uncovered amino acids in the spike protein targeted by 1O2. Impressively, Y145 and H146 form an oxidization hotspot, which overlaps with the antigenic supersite in NTD. Taken together, our study established a targeted photodynamic approach against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and provided mechanistic insights into the photodynamic modification of protein molecules mediated by 1O2.

Multi-Model Attention Fusion Multilayer Perceptron Prediction Method for Subway OD Passenger Flow under COVID-19

At present, machine learning has been successfully applied in many fields and has achieved amazing results. Meanwhile, over the past few years, the pandemic has transformed the transportation industry. The two hot issues prompt us to rethink the traditional problem of passenger flow forecasting. As a special structure embedded in the machine learning model, the attention mechanism is used to automatically learn and calculate the contribution degree of input data to output data. Therefore, this paper uses the attention mechanism to find the best model to predict OD passenger flow under COVID-19. Holiday characteristics, minimum temperature, COVID-19 factors, and past origin-destination (OD) passenger flow were used as input characteristics. In the first stage, the attention mechanism was used to capture the advantages of the trained random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and Adaboost models, and then the MLP was trained. Afterward, the weight distribution of the two models is carried out by using the historical passenger flow. The multi-model attention+ MLP model was used to evaluate the OD passenger flow prediction of Dalian Metro Line 1 under COVID-19. All the possible choices in this process were taken as a comparison experiment. The results show that only the fusion model combining the attention mechanism of random forest and XGBoost with MLP has the highest prediction accuracy.

Influence of positive and negative affect on self-management among patients with early chronic kidney disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: The mediating and suppressing effect of ego depletion

Background Self-management in patients with early chronic kidney disease (CKD) can effectively delay damage to renal function. However, with the continuous spread of COVID-19, patients cannot receive timely treatment, which can lead to different affects, resulting in ego depletion and serious challenges to self-management. This study aimed to investigate the mediating and suppressing roles of ego depletion on the relationship between positive and negative affect and self-management among patients with early CKD during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Methods A total of 383 patients with early CKD from three tertiary hospitals were enrolled by convenience sampling in our cross-sectional study from September 2021 to March 2022. Participants completed the Sociodemographic Questionnaire, Positive Affect and Negative Affect Scale, Self-Regulating Fatigue Scale and Chronic Kidney Disease Self-Management Instrument. A structural equation model was conducted to test the mediating and suppressing effects of ego depletion on the relationship between positive and negative affect and self-management. Results The average score of the participants' self-management was 84.54 (SD: 19.72), and nearly 60% of them were at low and moderate levels. The mediating effect of positive affect on self-management through ego depletion was significant (β = 0.248, 95% CI: 0.170 to 0.376), accounting for 53.22% of the total effect. The suppressing effect of negative affect on self-management through ego depletion was significant (β = −0.191, 95% CI: −0.310 to −0.118), and the absolute value of the ratio of the suppressing effect to the direct effect was 66.55%. Conclusions Ego depletion partially mediated the relationship between positive affect and self-management while suppressing the relationship between negative affect and self-management among patients with early CKD during the COVID-19 pandemic. The reduction of patients' ego depletion must be taken as the intervention target to improve self-management and delay the progression of CKD.

Increasing trans-cleavage catalytic efficiency of Cas12a and Cas13a with chemical enhancers: Application to amplified nucleic acid detection

The exceptional programable trans-cleavage ability of type V and VI CRISPR/Cas nucleases paved the way for ultrasensitive CRISPR/Cas based sensing of nucleic acid and alternative targets. However, the enhancement of the trans-cleavage activity of Cas effector with organic chemical agents has not been explored thus far. We report here chemically enhanced trans-cleavage activity of Cas12a and Cas13a nucleases which improves sensor performance in CRISPR/Cas biosensing. Improved trans-ssDNA cleavage of Cas12a and trans-ssRNA cleavage of Cas13a were demonstrated by using sulfhydryl reductants and non-ionic surfactants. DTT and PVA were demonstrated to be the most effective chemical enhancers in both cases. By using a fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based intramolecular distance measurements, we identified the mechanism of this enhancement to be the conformation change of the ribonucleoprotein and quantified it to be major (about 50% increase of a relevant intramolecular distance). These chemical enhancers have been integrated into the established CRISPR/Cas biosensing protocols without additional modifications. For the detection of Helicobacter Pylori DNA and SARS-CoV-2 RNA, we found a decreased reaction time by 75–83% and 4–6-fold increased sensitivity. These results indicate that chemical enhancers provide a versatile and broadly applicable approach to break through the barriers of long reaction time and sensitivity in CRISPR/Cas sensors.

The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the care of pulmonary hypertension patients outside the Hubei province in China

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has severely affected the lives of people around the world, especially some patients with severe chronic diseases. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak from December 2019 to April 2020 on treating patients with PH. A questionnaire regarding the medical condition of PH patients during the COVID‐19 pandemic was designed by PH diagnostic experts in The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, China Respiratory Center. One hundred and fifty‐six subjects with PH from non‐Hubei regions in China were invited to participate in this survey online. 63.4% (n = 99) of them had difficulty seeing a doctor, and the main reason was fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) in the hospital. Medical treatment was affected in 25% (n = 39) of patients, and who lived in rural areas, and discontinued medical therapy for financial reasons were at a higher risk of medical treatment being affected. Patients who reduced nutrition, and had difficulty seeing a doctor were more likely to get deteriorated. During the epidemic, the hospitalization rate of PH patients was 33.33%. Patients with aggravated PH had a high risk of hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] = 2.844), while patients who visited a doctor during the epidemic reduced the risk of hospitalization (OR = 0.33). In conclusion, during the COVID‐19 pandemic, PH patients had difficulty seeing a doctor, and their medical treatment was affected, even worsened, and increased the risk of hospitalization.

Machine Learning to Assess the Prognostic Utility of Radiomic Features for In-hospital COVID-19 Mortality (preprint)

As portable chest X-rays are an efficient means of triaging emergent cases, their increased use has raised the question as to whether imaging carries additional prognostic utility for survival among patients with COVID-19. This study assessed the importance of known risk factors on in-hospital mortality and to investigate the predictive utility of radiomic texture features using various machine learning approaches. We detected incremental improvements in survival prognostication utilizing texture features derived from emergent chest X-rays, particularly among older patients or those with higher comorbidity burden. Important features included age, oxygen saturation, blood pressure, and certain comorbid conditions, as well as image features related to the intensity and variability of the pixel distribution. Thus, widely available chest X-rays, in conjunction with clinical information, may be predictive of survival outcomes of patients with COVID-19, especially older, sicker patients, and can aid in disease management by providing additional information.

Epidemiological investigation of an imported COVID-19 case infected with Delta variant from Nepal in Chongqing of China

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of a COVID-19 case imported from Nepal in Chongqing of China, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of imported COVID-19.

Factors associated with prolonged viral shedding in older patients infected with Omicron BA.2.2 (preprint)

Background To explore the risk factors associated with the viral shedding time in the elder Chinese patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron.Methods Participants infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron were enrolled in a retrospective study, and divided into two groups according to the shedding time of omicron [≥ 10 days, "late clearance group" and < 10 days, "early clearance group"].Results 180 patients were enrolled in the study (88 early, 92 late), with a median time of viral shedding was 10 days and a mean age of 77.02 years. When comparing patients between either group, prolonged SARS-CoV-2 omicron shedding was associated with old age (P = 0.007), unvaccinated (P = 0.001), delayed admission to hospital after illness onset (P = 0.001), D-dimer (P = 0.003) and methylprednisolone treatment (P = 0.048). In the multivariable analysis, vaccinated [OR], 0.319 [95% CI, 0.130–0.786], P = 0.013), paxlovid (OR, 0.259 [95% CI, 0.104–0.643], P = 0.004), and time from onset to admission (OR, 1.802 [95% CI, 1.391–2.355], P = 0.000) were significantly associated with viral clearance.Conclusions The older age, methylprednisolone therapy, and D-dimer were associated with prolonged duration of omicron viral shedding. The time from onset to hospitalization, unused paxlovid and unvaccinated were independent risk factors in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron.

Key knowledge domains for maritime shipping executives in the digital era: a knowledge-based view approach

With the emergence of disruptive technologies and digital acceleration caused by COVID-19, educating the maritime workforce by equipping them with relevant knowledge is crucial to the industry’s success. Drawing from the knowledge-based view and business logistic management framework, the objective of this study was to construct a framework that identifies and ranks existing and upcoming relevant knowledge domains and their sub-domains for maritime shipping executives. After reviewing the literature, five domains – digitalisation, maritime business, sustainability, personnel development, and supply chain management (SCM) – and 23 sub-knowledge domains were developed. Surveys were conducted with shipping company managers in Singapore and their responses were analysed using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process methodology. The results revealed that digitalisation knowledge was the most important, followed by maritime business, personnel development, sustainability, and SCM knowledge. Overall, this research has updated the knowledge and competency framework for maritime shipping executives, contributed to research on the interface between technology and knowledge management, and informed education strategies. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Technology Analysis & Strategic Management is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)